The 12 Players I'm Wrong About in Fantasy Football

But first...please, put down the phone.

Ahead of this week’s fantasy football content please allow me a moment to stand up on my soapbox and add my voice to a growing chorus of people and declare: smartphones and social media are bad for us.

Over the past five to ten years I’ve had a nagging feeling, accelerated by the isolating quagmire of the COVID-19 pandemic, that our reliance on smartphones is robbing us of a quintessential part of the human experience. I say this as someone whose iPhone is sitting right next to him as I write this, beckoning me to scan my retinas and bombard me with new stimuli.

There is a growing body of research and analysis of the impacts of smartphones and social media and how they have fundamentally changed the way we live (more on that below). Along with this change has come a steady fraying of the social fabric and basic human connection that has held us together for centuries.

“Across many measures, Americans appear to be becoming less socially connected over time,” a 2023 report from the Department of Health and Human Services entitled “Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation” stated.

“Americans are now spending more time alone than ever. It’s changing our personalities, our politics, and even our relationship to reality,” Derek Thompson, one of my favorite writers (now on Substack!) wrote in his January 2025 cover story for The Atlantic entitled “The Anti-Social Century.”

We are slowly and subconsciously losing the art of relationships, the art of conversation and the art of human connection over time as we spend less and less time looking at each other and more and more time staring at our screens.

I don’t want to waste more digital ink by acknowledging the oft-mentioned caveats to this argument (e.g. the incredible way our current technology informs us, connects us, and makes global communication possible at the press of a button via FaceTime and WhatsApp). All communication is not created equal.

There’s a reason why things like misinformation, disinformation, hate, anger, anxiety, violence and cruelty thrive on social media and in our digital ecosystem. Genuine human interaction and empathetic connection are the antidote to all of those poisons. When we spend more time siloed and alone we grow calloused to the world in a way we were never meant to be.

Disconnection makes casual cruelty easy. We fear and degenerate what we don’t have to put a real, physical face to. Isolation leads us to bitter conclusions about the world beyond our screens.

I’m sad and worried about this, and I want it to change. The rise of books like Jonathan Haidt’s “The Anxious Generation” and other literature urging the next generation of parents to limit their children’s use of smartphones and access to social media gives me hope that the next generation has a chance to break this troubling trend.

I also acknowledge that this is the intro to a Substack encouraging people to participate in a wholly digital experience. But as I’ve stated before, fantasy football is about so much more than names you shuffle around on your iPhone each Sunday.

The best part of fantasy football is the connection you share with your leaguemates. Trash talk, reacting to incredible plays, sharing life experiences like marriages and kids. In a time when we’ve lost that third place between work and home, the place where we can connect and get to know each other, use your fantasy league as connective social tissue.

And there are opportunities to bring fantasy football off-screen: Have an in-person draft with your friends, start a rec basketball league with your leaguemates, form connections you otherwise wouldn’t make with people in your league you don’t know as well.

I’m not resigned to a world that looks like the Nosedive episode of Black Mirror, where social media snark and judgement are the measures of human worth. But I am worried, because the world we live in today does resemble that “fake” world where everyone is buried in their phones at all times.

Let’s all work to change that.

And now…back to our regularly scheduled fantasy programming.

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Every year, there are players I have an almost involuntary reaction to. I either see them leading my fantasy team to a championship or becoming the bane of my existence. Either I’ll love watching them dominate every Sunday or contemplate banishing them to the waiver wire for all eternity.

Inevitably, many of those hunches turn out to be wrong. Our guts mislead us, recency bias reigns supreme, or we overreact to one bad play we happened to catch on RedZone last season.

Yeah…I know I’m wrong to rank Christian McCaffrey as the RB12.

This list is an attempt to preempt those hunches and prejudge my biases. These are the players I’m either too high on or too low on for various reasons.

These are the players I know I’m wrong about ahead of the 2025 NFL season:

Bucky Irving (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Too high

Ranking Irving as the RB6 and the 15th player overall this season is… a lot, I know. I am absolutely getting caught up in the hype and doubling down on a player everyone fell in love with last season. That’s not to say Irving won’t be good this year, but he’s probably going to finish closer to RB10 than RB1. ESPN and The Ringer have him ranked as RB9, while Yahoo has him at RB10. I have Irving ranked above guys like Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, and Christian McCaffrey. Bucky is really, really good, and I think the Bucs’ offense will remain top-tier, but I’m probably overrating him by a degree.

Christian McCaffrey (RB, San Francisco 49ers): Too low

This is pure recency bias colored by personal anguish. I had the number one overall pick last year in my high school league and agonized over whether to take CMC. Everything in my gut and heart said no. He’s a 49er (yuck), Shanahan ran him into the ground last year (ugh), and he always alternates between good years and bad (sigh). When I selected him at #1, I thought I was making a smart, unemotional choice. And then came Week One, when the term “bilateral Achilles tendonitis” entered the fantasy lexicon. Yes, RB12 is too low for McCaffrey, who could easily deliver a #1 overall scoring season again. I know I’m wrong, but on this one, I don’t really care. I was burned, scarred, lied to—I can’t do it again. But… McCaffrey should be drafted as a top-8 RB. It just won’t be me who does it this year.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars): Too high

Ranking him as the WR5 was as much a bet on Trevor Lawrence as it was on BTJ, who I love. Most other sites have him ranked toward the back end of the top 10, with guys like Puka Nacua and Nico Collins slotted above him. That’s probably fair given Lawrence’s recent struggles and the Jags’ penchant for offensive inconsistency. The arrival of Travis Hunter also has the potential to cut into BTJ’s target share and dull his fantasy production enough to push him further down the fantasy ranks. I don’t want to be wrong about BTJ—or any of my rankings, for that matter—but again, this is probably me wishcasting a leap forward that likely won’t fully materialize this season.

Omarion Hampton (RB, Los Angeles Chargers): Too high

Looking back at my assessment of Hampton, I clearly have rose-tinted glasses when looking at this dude. Yes, he is super athletic and produced consistently at the college level for UNC. But unfortunately, the Chargers’ backfield is probably going to feature a lot more Najee Harris than most of us care to admit—at least for the first half of the season. I don’t really see Jim Harbaugh giving Hampton the lion’s share of the rushing work until he can fully trust him in pass protection and short-yardage situations. Obviously, Hampton outranks Harris mightily in the talent and explosiveness departments, but Harbaugh has loved Harris going all the way back to the Alabama product’s high school days. RB16 is a bit rich, and given the likelihood that he will operate in a true timeshare for a large portion of the season, it’s a safer bet to slot Hampton closer to the mid-RB20s.

Breece Hall (RB, New York Jets): Too low

Once again, I admit, this is recency bias. RB19 is a little harsh for Hall, even after last year’s slog of a season. But the memories of watching Hall fail to produce at anywhere near the levels of 2023 still linger deep in the minds of the fantasy community. Everyone who expected Hall to thrive with Aaron Rodgers under center was rightly disappointed by his RB17 finish. But… the guy is 24 years old, squarely in his prime, with no serious competition for touches and a new, dynamic QB in Justin Fields whose rushing prowess could open up new running lanes. Hall is an obvious post-hype sleeper who’s probably going to end up closer to RB10 than RB20, where I currently have him ranked.

Jauan Jennings (WR, San Francisco 49ers): Too high

Jennings has quickly become the sleeper darling of the fantasy offseason. “3rd and Jauan” officially became a thing last season as Brock Purdy continually peppered Jennings with targets in key situations—and the 4th-year wideout delivered. His 975 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns far outpaced his previous career highs and vaulted Jennings into WR2 territory.

I have Jennings ranked ahead of this season as the WR27, while ESPN has him as WR40. Now, I think I’m going to be more right than ESPN, but I’m probably a touch high on Jennings. The 49ers’ passing game is still likely to flow through George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk (once he returns), and 2nd-year player Ricky Pearsall showed promise down the stretch last year. I love Jennings and am targeting him often in fantasy drafts, but my dreams of him as a surefire WR1 aren’t likely to be answered this year.

Mark Andrews (TE, Baltimore Ravens): Too high

Last season was weird for Andrews. He looked all but fully washed until… he wasn’t. Isaiah Likely was the next big thing at TE in fantasy until… he wasn’t. When I ranked Andrews as TE6 a few weeks back, I immediately paused and felt like that was way too high. I could easily see guys like Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Tucker Kraft leapfrogging Andrews this year. Ranking Andrews this year is a confounding exercise. You don’t want to rank him too high only for this to be the year Likely finally supplants him as the Ravens’ TE1, but you also don’t want to abandon a known fantasy commodity coming off a solid year. Either way, I felt damned if I did, damned if I didn’t with Andrews this year.

Rashee Rice (WR, Kansas City Chiefs): Too low

This is purely based on reports that Rice appears to be healthy heading into Chiefs training camp next month (though a potential suspension stemming from a 2024 speed racing incident still looms). Rice was in the process of cementing himself as a WR1 before Patrick Mahomes decided to accidentally ram his entire body weight into his star wideout's knee, ending his season. What makes Rice such an attractive fantasy asset is not just his self-evident talent but the highly consistent level of volume he commands in the Chiefs offense. He is Mahomes’ go-to guy on crossing routes and mid-level throws. In his final game before injury Rice garnered 14 targets, turning them into 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. If he is as healthy as reports indicate and gets through the preseason with no major setbacks I see no reason why he shouldn’t be viewed as a high-end WR2 with clear WR1 potential.

Kyler Murray (QB, Arizona Cardinals): Too high

I have Murray ranked as QB7, and I’m not sure what he’s done to deserve that. In his first two seasons in the league, he finished as QB6 and QB3, but since then has finished no higher than QB10. One of those seasons was cut short by injury, but the results speak for themselves. Despite his rushing ability, Kyler has never demonstrated the ability to put up consistent passing numbers unsullied by turnovers. He takes too many sacks and bails out of plays too early when he should be pushing the ball downfield. My ranking reflected a belief that Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are a good enough duo to support a bona fide QB1. But given Murray’s recent performance, the smart money is on him finishing as a decent QB2.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (WRs, Miami Dolphins): Too low

It’s not really fair to judge Hill and Waddle solely by what happened last season. Tua’s injuries and a mess of a passing game clearly held back what are two of the NFL’s most talented receivers, who have regularly produced WR1 and WR2 numbers, respectively. Miami’s offense as a whole is likely due for a bounce-back season—if Tua can avoid major injury trouble—making both of the Dolphins’ top wideouts major post-hype sleeper candidates. I have Hill ranked as WR12 and Waddle as WR38, but I wouldn’t be shocked if you cut those numbers in half in terms of where they’ll ultimately finish on the WR leaderboard.

Drake Maye (QB, New England Patriots): Too high

When I originally started putting together my rankings, I wanted to avoid hopping on the Drake Maye hype train. Maybe it’s a reflexive anti-Patriots bias lurking within me, but I just wasn’t convinced a second-year leap was in store. I ended up resisting that bias and ranked Maye as QB14—ahead of guys like Dak Prescott, Justin Fields, and Jordan Love—and now… I’m not sure about that. A 31-year-old Stefon Diggs, coming off an ACL tear, was the Pats’ big offseason acquisition—which will pay dividends if he’s healthy and returns to form—while most of the other free agency signings ahead of Mike Vrabel’s first year at the helm were on the defensive side of the ball. Outside of Diggs, there is still a dearth of proven offensive weapons in New England, even with the additions of TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams in the draft. Yes, I think Maye will be better than he was last year when he finished as QB22, but on the whole, I think he’ll finish closer to the QB20s than the top-10 guy most fantasy observers have decided he’s destined to be.